Will Trump Serve All Four Years of His Term? Or Will...
In conversation with a few friends the other day, I engaged in a discussion about whether Donald Trump will serve all four years of his White House term.
The answer, of course, is unknowable. But, we live in a political world rife with conspiracy theories, up-is-down official government pronouncements and a multitude of trails leading to political and economic fantasy. So, for this week’s column, I’ve decided to offer my opinion on the unknowable topic of Trump’s White House future.
Let’s start with September 9 and 10. Trump has called for an unprecedented off-year national Republican convention just weeks before many states begin early voting. Ostensibly the purpose is to help GOP candidates running in the November election. But does anyone doubt that Trump will see to it that the convention is largely about Trump? His record. His obsessions.
High on that agenda will be his favorite topic, how his election loss in 2020 was rigged and how our entire voting process is broken and needs fundamental change.
(This “rigged” and “broken” election system has resulted in Trump being elected president twice, with mostly Republican majority congresses, elections in which Republican state legislators far outnumber Democrats and there are more Republican governors than Democrats. Anyone see the irony in this?).
National conventions enthusiastically endorse their leaders, they don’t question them. So, no matter what is on the agenda, rigged elections, inflation (Biden’s fault), Iran war (Biden’s fault—maybe Obama’s, too), Trump’s leadership will be enthusiastically endorsed. Virtually every claim of success and every issue position will be one that according to polls are unpopular with voters. And every Republican on the November ballot, no matter how they might try otherwise, will not be able to escape the negative effects of Trump’s White House fantasies and record, freshly recalled for voters at September’s high-visibility convention.
The Midterm Crossroads and Congressional Fallout
Now imagine a day-after-November-election victory for Democrats, an outcome that’s by no means certain, but certainly plausible from current opinion polls. Trump being Trump, this will begin a months’ long effort to deny the outcome and resist a Democratic takeover of at least the House and possibly the Senate. Eventually, America still being America, Trump fails and is faced with a hostile Congress bent on investigating all of his questionable actions.
What do you do if you’re a surviving Republican member of Congress? Your president is more unpopular and unpredictable as ever. Democratic investigations are about to make it worse.
Do you continue to give him wholehearted support? Most do, at least in public, because that’s what constituents in their very red districts and states want. But many don’t. It would be like digging their own political graves. And, with the start of the 2028 campaign for president, what choice do GOP candidates for the White House have? Support Trump’s presidency that two-thirds or more of Americans reject? Or defy Trump and lose the most active GOP voting base?
Behind Closed Doors: The Plan to Ease Donald Trump Out
Enter Vice President J. D. Vance. Politically savvy, you might say bordering on Machiavellian. If nothing changes, it’s a good bet that if Trump remains president, Vance goes down with the ship in 2028. Possibly even denied his own nomination by Marco Rubio, who would be perceived as less politically toxic. Vance knows that. He also knows that most everyone in Trump’s cabinet is aware of Trump’s incompetency and mental state. (All you need for confirmation is to read Trump’s Truth Social posts every day). How hard would it be to deviously organize a medically driven removal of Trump under the 25th amendment? A majority of the cabinet could do it with a letter to Congress. Congress could confirm it with a two-thirds vote of each house.
Or, more deviously, Vance could enlist the influence of his billionaire tech friends to make it worthwhile for just enough Republican senators to join with Democrats to remove Trump through impeachment.
It doesn’t need even to seem hostile, but more for Trump’s own good. A gold watch retirement removal. “He’s done so much but it’s time,” etc.
The remaining 15-20% of voters who are hard core MAGA would not be happy, to say the least. But I’d venture a huge majority of Americans would welcome the departure of Trump and his chaos. For Republican officeholders, it’s a whole new day. New guy at the helm. He deserves a chance, our support.
As noted earlier, this is not a prediction. Neither is it far-fetched. Add it to all the other political possibilities. It also has immediate value for me. Writing a column of random thoughts is so much less time consuming than one that requires facts and research.
Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net
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What happens when a fun-loving, charismatic, reform-minded Mexican-American billionairess becomes president of the United States and strikes fear in the pocketbooks of a cabal of the rich and powerful?