After The Election Drama, The Sequel: What to do With Trump

There’s much speculation about potential interference with the November 3 voting and the morning and weeks after. If the Democrats win control of the House or Senate, what might Donald Trump and his allies do to thwart the result? Given Trump’s 2020 history, when he tried to subvert an election he didn’t win, and his many threats this year, concern is well-founded.

But if democracy prevails and Democratic party winners are all seated on January 3, what next?

Retaining the Senate majority had seemed like a sure thing for the Republicans, with at least three vulnerable Democratic Senate seats that realistically could be flipped and only one or two Republican seats to seriously defend. How could they lose?

How? With Trump as president, whose behavior and policies are historically unpopular. Even billions of dollars of dark money may not save Republican control, weighted as it is with Trump’s baggage.

Strategic Errors Threatening the Republican Senate Majority

Saving the House majority never was expected to be easy. But a landslide loss, including districts Trump had carried by 5 to 10 points and more just two years ago?

So, what does Senate Republican leader John Thune do if his party winds up in the minority? Keep the troops in lockstep behind whatever Trump does, or fails to do? Continue to defend him when he says or does the indefensible? That’s a formula for another Republican election disaster in 2028. 

Just as politically risky as an alternative would be breaking with Trump on high visibility decisions and issues, insuring the wrath of hard core MAGA commentators and activists.

J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, the two leading GOP presidential candidates, are in the same vice. Rubio could declare his independence, resign from the administration and try to reinvent himself for 2028. That would be entirely out of character for him, but it’s a choice. 

Vance, though, is stuck. He rises or falls with Trump.

The Role of the 25th Amendment in Post-Election Governance

Unless…

The 25th amendment to the U.S. Constitution gives the vice president the right to mobilize a majority of the presidential cabinet and declare the president unable to serve because of physical or mental fitness. If the president disagrees, Congress can still remove him with a two- thirds vote.

Most Americans likely would welcome such an end to the Trump era. A majority of Trump’s cabinet members have had a front row seat watching Trump’s mental decline. They know better than most that Trump isn’t fit to hold the office. A majority might not take much convincing to follow Vance’s lead. 

Would enough Republicans in the House and Senate join Democrats to vote to remove Trump from office?

Don’t bet against it. Any Republican House member who survived a debacle in 2026 would come to work surrounded by empty seats where so many of his GOP colleagues fell victim to Trump-induced political carnage.

Political Survival Strategies for Republicans in 2028

If that were you, would you sign up to do it all over again in 2028? Or would you rather have a fresh face and clean slate in the White House and a more acceptable, let’s-give-the-new-guy-a-chance narrative to take to the voters?

While Trump’s die-hard MAGA base would be furious, at least for a while, the fitness argument, backed by impeccable medical evaluations, would provide a reasonable off-ramp. Such as: “I’ve always supported Trump and still would. But age takes its toll. Let’s praise him for all the good he’s done, give him a gold watch and send him into a well-deserved retirement.” No disavowals of Trump needed. No need to cast a tough Democratic-sponsored impeachment vote.

For Vance, instead of going into the 2028 presidential campaign vulnerable to Trump’s every whim and grievance, triggering the 25th amendment escape would be an opportunity to save his political career and quickly consolidate political power for the 2028 nomination. And he likely would do it enjoying a voter honeymoon with a thankful public, relieved at finally being able to bid good riddance. 

This may not be the way it finally ends. But if the November 3 election outcome is anywhere close to where polls now forecast, it should.

Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net

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