George Clooney vs Tucker Carlson for President in 2028?
The final ballots from the 2025 elections had not been counted before the inevitable media speculation began about who the presidential candidates would be in 2028. Such polls and informed analysis are important predictors of what’s to come. Right?
Wrong.
Exhibit A: “Wisdom” from a December 2005 poll about what we could expect in the 2008 election:
(CNN) -- If the results of a recent poll pan out, voters will see two big names from New York on the ballot in November 2008. Those names are Democrat Hillary Clinton, the state's junior U.S. senator, and Republican Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Thursday indicated Clinton and Giuliani were the early favorites to win their respective party's nomination.
The actual result: Barack Obama defeated John McCain
A Look Back at Failed Election Predictions
Moving on to December 2009, here’s the early forecast for the 2012 presidential choice:
(CNN) -- Barack Obama is still more than six weeks from White House, and the next Iowa caucuses are more than three years away — so naturally, it’s time to start talking 2012, as a new national poll suggests that Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee top the list of potential 2012 Republican presidential hopefuls.
The actual result: Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney
One more. A a poll from May 2015, just a year before the 2016 presidential election:
(CNN) — The race for the Republican nomination for President is more wide open now than perhaps ever before, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, with five GOP hopefuls all tied with the same amount of support. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has joined the top tier of Republican aspirants, joining Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former governors Jeb Bush of Florida and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.
The actual nominee and November winner: Donald Trump.
Why Presidential Election Predictions Miss the Mark
Should I go on? Or have I made an obvious point here. Why speculate about 2028 when that year’s presidential race is unknowable?
The prediction markets, where gamblers bet real money on their forecasts, currently see a J.D. Vance vs Gavin Newsom race. Or, maybe an A.O.C. vs Donald Trump running illegally for a third term match up.
Good luck with that.
Maybe it will happen. Or, just as likely, someone, or many someones dynamically emerge from political obscurity, like Zohran Mamdani just did with a landslide victory in New York City.
Maybe a non-politician like George Clooney or a right-wing media star like Tucker Carlson decides to run. Clooney? Entertainers have been doing well in politics lately. (See Trump, Donald, Sr.) Carlson? A large segment of MAGA loves that Carlson just gave a lot of airtime to an overt white Christian national bigot. That segment usually is a big factor in GOP presidential primary voting. (See Trump, Donald, Sr.).
My personal guess is that after a blue wave election in 2026, and the loss of their House majority, Republicans will depose Trump as unfit to serve under the 25th amendment. Rather than defend him in another impeachment where high visibility hearings will remind voters of all his illegality, GOP leaders will honor him as a wounded warrior (bless his heart) and hope a new president (Vance), makes voters forget Trump before the 2028 election. I think that’s as good a guess as any, but I wouldn’t bet real money on it.
Focus on the Politics of the Present
The extent of the Democratic sweep November 5 showed up on few pre-election crystal balls. Not even just before it happened. And now we’re trying to divine events three years into the future? Quit trying.
The media should keep its focus on the political here and now and double down on reporting Trump’s serious mental health problems, his administration’s criminality, and the culpability of the Republican congressional majorities. That’s happening in plain sight. No guesswork needed.
Here’s this week’s STEM Winder: A weekly look into the future.
Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net
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